Recently, the Senate announced an aggressive timetable to bring comprehensive health care "reform" legislation to the floor of both houses of Congress and have it passed by early fall of this year. With democratic majorities in both houses, the passage of the legislation would be assured. It would seem as though nothing can stop this leap into a socialist 'nirvana'.
Not so fast, Marxist breath! A new obstacle has appeared on the horizon which may derail this health care gravy train. Ironically enough, it concerns the basic economic law of supply and demand asserting it's ugly little head. It seems we are becoming short on the supply of doctors in our current semi-socialist health care system, and the Medicare monster is largely to blame.
In an April 26th article appearing in the New York Times, Robert Pear writes that,
“Obama administration officials, alarmed at doctor shortages, are looking for ways to increase the supply of physicians to meet the needs of an aging population and millions of uninsured people who would gain coverage under legislation championed by the president.”
In other words, we have here an instance of a shortage of supply which is unable to meet the demand. But this is not simply a shortage of the supply of a product we are talking about here. This is a shortage of qualified people absolutely necessary to meet the demand that is anticipated should mandated universal health care become a reality.
The fact is simply this; we do not have enough primary care physicians to meet current demand let alone the inevitable large increase in demand for health care which would result in an environment of universal health care. In the same article for the Times, Pear writes that “Lawmakers from both parties say the shortage of health care professionals is already having serious consequences.”
The article goes on to cite the fact that Massachusetts, which recently expanded government health care coverage, is now experiencing a crisis in physician supply. This has meant that we have fewer doctors to take care of larger numbers of people. In fact, because of this 2006 law, the “ratio of primary care doctors to population is higher in Massachusetts than in other states.”
If this current shortage cannot be addressed, the future of health care in our land is in jeopardy, and the idea of universal health care for all Americans may well be in the Intensive Care Unit, if not terminal.
However, the omniscient, all-wise government is not blind to the problem. With apologies to Bill O'Reilly, they are “looking out for you,”. Even now there are some solutions being proposed to meet this crisis. One is to increase Medicare payments to primary care physicians. In order to find these funds, the proposal suggests lowering Medicare reimbursements to high-paid specialists, something these specialists are not likely to take lying down. Other proposals include increasing enrollment in medical schools and residency training programs, and encouraging a greater use of nurse practitioners for primary care. Expanding the National Health Service Corps, which helps get health care practitioners to rural and poor neighborhoods is another option being considered. With these solutions in place, perhaps the current shortage in supply can be brought to a place where the current demand can be reasonably met without a large increase in costs. One thing seems sure though, someone will pay a larger amount just to solve the current problem. Remember, we are dealing with a law of economics here, the law of supply and demand. According to that law, a shortage of supply or an increase in demand for any product will result in an increase in the price. In the case of health care in the U.S., we are presently experiencing both of these phenomena! If we assume that the currently proposed solutions actually work (a dubious admission at best) to increase the supply of physicians enough to better meet the current demand, we still have a large problem facing us even without a government program for universal health care. That is the problem of our aging society in which ever larger numbers of people are going to demand more primary and specialist health care. More and more people, as they live longer in our land, are going to become eligible for Medicare. The Medicare and Medicaid systems we have now are ill-equipped to deal with present day health care demands, as almost everyone attests to. Soon, many millions more retirees and elderly will come on the rolls for these services, and the demand will soar. If we add a universal health care system into the mix, the demand will become astronomical.
If one analyzes this situation from a logical and economic standpoint, the following facts emerge. FIRST, it is virtually impossible to increase the supply of physicians to the point where the number will be adequate to address the needed demand of a universal health care system. The supply of physicians cannot be increased in the same way a factory-made product can. We cannot simply manufacture more doctors on an assembly line until we have enough of the “product.” It might be feasible to increase doctor supply by increasing economic incentives to become a doctor. But that will mean an increase in the cost of health care. And that will at the least mean an increase in taxes to pay for these incentives. Even then, it cannot be assured that enough people will become the doctors which will be needed.
SECOND, That the demand will increase is indisputable. As has already been mentioned, this is bound to happen even without universal health care coming to pass. Besides the facts of the increasing population of the elderly, we have the increase in illegal immigrants whom we have obligated ourselves to care for. This includes giving most health care for little or no cost to them. But as with all things, somebody pays, and if you guessed it was the average Joe taxpayer, give yourself a gold star! This is helping drive our health care dilemma to new heights even now. Imagine what a nightmare this will become under universal health care!
THIRD, the Obama administration will not allow anything to stand in the way of bringing about a universal health care system in the United States. It is far more than a political maneuver on the part of President Obama. He is an ideologue especially concerning this particular idea. He is a “true believer” in socialism, no matter what he or others might choose to call it. His record as a politician before he came to the presidency, and more so since, amply demonstrates this.
To sum up, ONE the supply of physicians cannot meet current demand and certainly will not be able to meet the future demand of a universal health care system. TWO, the demand for health care will increase to almost unimaginable levels under a universal health care system. THREE, a universal heath care system in the United States will almost certainly come to pass. However, this would seem to describe an impossible situation. All three of these conditions cannot exist as they are. The tension will become unbearable between supply and demand. The structure will not hold and the entire health care system will collapse under it's own weight. It would appear that there is no way to avoid this predicament.
However, such is not the case, as we will see in the next post.
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